Expected Goals
2.29 (league 1.31)
2.28 (league 0.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.6% | 19.2% | 37.4% |
best score tips
2 - 2
7.1%
2 - 1
6.2%
1 - 2
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
| ASA | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Juazeirense | 0 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
ASA carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Juazeirense +29.6, ASA +12.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Juazeirense
vs
ASA
Elo gapASA +66
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3191.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3191.8
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1545.5 | 1646.3 |
| Form Elo | 1589.9 | 1669 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1534.8 | 1549.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1485.1 | 1606.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1534.5 | 1705.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +29.6 | +12.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Juazeirense last-5 Elo change: +29.6; ASA last-5 Elo change: +12.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 100% | 78% |
| Attack | 57% | 29% |
| Defense | 79% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2.7 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
86%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 100% | 100% | 50% | 100% | 67% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
JuazeirenseWWW
ASADWW
League goals
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Juazeirense | ASA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 0% | 67% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Juazeirense | ASA |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 10% | 90% |
| Total | 40.0% | 60.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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