Expected Goals
1.92 (league 1.36)
1.97 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.0% | 21.0% | 39.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
7.7%
1 - 2
7.6%
2 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Coritiba | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gremio | 0 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Coritiba carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Gremio -22.3, Coritiba +19.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Gremio
vs
Coritiba
Elo gapCoritiba +34
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3186.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3186.6
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1558.6 | 1628 |
| Form Elo | 1538.5 | 1638.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1566.5 | 1564.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1596 | 1512.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1604.6 | 1661.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.3 | +19.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Gremio last-5 Elo change: -22.3; Coritiba last-5 Elo change: +19.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 40% |
| Attack | 13% | 38% |
| Defense | 63% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Wins | 60% | 0% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 42% |
| Draws | 40% | 29% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 71% | 42% | 33% | 17% | 25% |
GremioLWLWDDWLLDDL
CoritibaLWDLWWWLDDDW
League goals
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 5 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gremio | Coritiba | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 75% | 75% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 50% | 42% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-3 | — | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gremio | Coritiba |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 53.0% | 47.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.95 @ Betano
Draw3.45 @ Dafabet
Away4.40 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.25 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.70 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.80 @ Betano
📊
League standings
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