Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 19:30 •
Estadio General Jose de San Martin
Expected Goals
0.19 (league 1.29)
0.69 (league 0.73)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | 47.2% | 43.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
41.5%
0 - 1
28.5%
0 - 2
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Costa Brava | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| San Martín Mendoza | 0 | 41.5% | 28.5% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
San Martín Mendoza carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the thin confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: San Martín Mendoza -13.2, Costa Brava +3.1.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
San Martín Mendoza
vs
Costa Brava
Elo gapSan Martín Mendoza +18
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3014.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3014.9
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1498.9 | 1516 |
| Form Elo | 1483.7 | 1520.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1528.9 | 1488.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1440.6 | 1461.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1557.6 | 1592.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.2 | +3.1 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. San Martín Mendoza last-5 Elo change: -13.2; Costa Brava last-5 Elo change: +3.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 40% |
| Attack | 13% | 63% |
| Defense | 50% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
31%
FT probability
2.5+
22%
FT probability
3.5+
16%
FT probability
BTTS
39%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 25% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 25% | 33% | 100% | 60% |
| Loses | 0% | 100% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
San Martín MendozaDLWL
Costa BravaWDDDL
League goals
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 25% | 50% | 60% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 0% | 25% | 20% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 25% | 20% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 0-1 | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Costa Brava |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 17% | 83% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 30.0% | 70.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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