Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:00 •
Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti
Expected Goals
2.49 (league 1.05)
0.60 (league 0.67)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.6% | 14.4% | 6.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.1%
3 - 0
11.7%
1 - 0
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Almagro | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Deportivo Maipu | 0 | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.1% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.7% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.3% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Deportivo Maipu carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 91 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Deportivo Maipu -19.0, Almagro -0.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Deportivo Maipu
vs
Almagro
Elo gapDeportivo Maipu +91
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2911.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2911.4
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1483.9 | 1427.5 |
| Form Elo | 1472.7 | 1422.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.1 | 1451.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1459.6 | 1372.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1548.3 | 1519.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.0 | -0.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Deportivo Maipu last-5 Elo change: -19.0; Almagro last-5 Elo change: -0.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 40% |
| Attack | 36% | 36% |
| Defense | 55% | 27% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 22% | 50% | 0% | 22% |
| Draws | 0% | 40% | 22% | 0% | 40% | 22% |
| Loses | 50% | 60% | 56% | 50% | 60% | 56% |
Deportivo MaipuLWDLLLLWD
AlmagroDLLDWWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 4 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 89% | 44% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 44% | 11% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 11% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | — | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Deportivo Maipu | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 61.2% | 38.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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