Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.05 (league 1.46)
0.96 (league 0.75)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.8% | 20.6% | 16.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.4%
1 - 0
10.2%
2 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Marquense | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guastatoya | 0 | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.4% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Guastatoya +9.4, Marquense +29.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Guastatoya
vs
Marquense
Elo gapGuastatoya +6
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo2993.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2993.1
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1482 | 1511.1 |
| Form Elo | 1488.5 | 1540.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1498.1 | 1434.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1439.6 | 1418.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1519.1 | 1573.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.4 | +29.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Guastatoya last-5 Elo change: +9.4; Marquense last-5 Elo change: +29.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 41% | 41% |
| Defense | 76% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 21 | 22 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 43 |
| Wins | 43% | 18% | 30% | 59% | 10% | 35% |
| Draws | 24% | 27% | 26% | 23% | 14% | 19% |
| Loses | 33% | 55% | 44% | 18% | 76% | 47% |
GuastatoyaLLDLLLLLLWDWLDWLWWLWLDWDDLWDLWLLDLWWDDLWDWL
MarquenseLDDWLWLWLLLDWLWLWDDLLLLWLDLLWLDLDWWWLWWLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 17 | 48 | 29 | 13 | 42 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 25 | 33 | 58 | 18 | 42 | 60 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 72% | 67% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 42% | 19% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 16% | 9% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 60.0% | 40.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.53 @ Unibet
Draw4.52 @ Pinnacle
Away8.05 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.09 @ Marathonbet
No1.86 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.90 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…