Iraqi League
— Iraq
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.58 (league 1.25)
0.73 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.4% | 39.7% | 34.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
27.1%
0 - 1
19.8%
1 - 0
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Zakho | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Naft | 0 | 27.1% | 19.8% | 7.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.6% | 11.4% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Zakho carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 49 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Naft -6.8, Zakho +8.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Naft
vs
Zakho
Elo gapZakho +49
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3102.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3102.6
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Naft | Zakho |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509.4 | 1593.2 |
| Form Elo | 1513 | 1587.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1509.7 | 1538.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1383.6 | 1518.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1617.5 | 1650.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.8 | +8.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Naft last-5 Elo change: -6.8; Zakho last-5 Elo change: +8.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Naft | Zakho |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 8% | 38% |
| Defense | 77% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
53%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
55%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Naft | Zakho | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 17 | 29 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| Wins | 33% | 24% | 28% | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| Draws | 33% | 41% | 38% | 40% | 15% | 29% |
| Loses | 33% | 35% | 34% | 13% | 38% | 25% |
NaftWLDWDLDDLWLWLDDLLWLDWDWDDWLLD
ZakhoLWLWWDWDDLDWWDWDLWWWWDLLWDLW
League goals
| Metric | Naft | Zakho | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 13 | 24 | 23 | 13 | 36 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 10 | 16 | 26 | 14 | 11 | 25 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Naft | Zakho | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 55% | 79% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 24% | 31% | 39% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Naft | Zakho | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Naft | Zakho |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 80.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 20.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Naft | Zakho |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Naft | Zakho |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 17% | 83% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 38.3% | 61.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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