Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Stade Saint-Jean
Expected Goals
1.48 (league 1.41)
0.84 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 51.9% | 26.4% | 21.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.6%
1 - 1
12.2%
2 - 0
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Toulouse II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Anglet Genets | 0 | 9.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.7% | 12.2% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Anglet Genets carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 79 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Anglet Genets +5.8, Toulouse II +19.8.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Anglet Genets
vs
Toulouse II
Elo gapAnglet Genets +79
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2966
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2966
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1505 | 1461 |
| Form Elo | 1506.1 | 1457.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487 | 1460.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.3 | 1440.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1500.1 | 1518.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.8 | +19.8 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Anglet Genets last-5 Elo change: +5.8; Toulouse II last-5 Elo change: +19.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 60% |
| Attack | 60% | 50% |
| Defense | 80% | 80% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 12 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Wins | 56% | 42% | 48% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Draws | 11% | 42% | 29% | 40% | 0% | 20% |
| Loses | 33% | 17% | 24% | 30% | 70% | 50% |
Anglet GenetsWLLWWWLWWWDLDWDDWDLWD
Toulouse IILWWLDLLDWDLLLDLWLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 16 | 30 | 12 | 9 | 21 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 10 | 10 | 20 | 10 | 13 | 23 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 62% | 60% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 24% | 35% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 5% | 10% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 5% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-4 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Anglet Genets | Toulouse II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 53.4% | 46.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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