Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:00 •
Campo Nuevo Municipal
Expected Goals
2.00 (league 1.27)
1.04 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.9% | 21.3% | 19.1% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 1
9.9%
2 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Marchamalo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Villarrubia | 0 | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Villarrubia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 76 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Villarrubia -3.8, Marchamalo -2.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Villarrubia
vs
Marchamalo
Elo gapVillarrubia +76
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3006.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3006.4
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1523.9 | 1482.5 |
| Form Elo | 1522.6 | 1480.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1539.5 | 1488.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1490.8 | 1525.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1556.3 | 1525 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.8 | -2.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Villarrubia last-5 Elo change: -3.8; Marchamalo last-5 Elo change: -2.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 40% |
| Attack | 54% | 23% |
| Defense | 46% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 73% | 19% | 45% | 44% | 20% | 32% |
| Draws | 0% | 44% | 23% | 25% | 13% | 19% |
| Loses | 27% | 38% | 32% | 31% | 67% | 48% |
VillarrubiaWDWDWDLLWLWLWWLWWDWDLLWDWLLLWWD
MarchamaloDLWLDLDLLDWLWLLWWLWDLWWLDLWLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 13 | 39 | 21 | 15 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 15 | 16 | 31 | 17 | 23 | 40 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Villarrubia | Marchamalo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 71% | 71% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 23% | 26% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 6% | 13% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Villarrubia | Marchamalo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 63.2% | 36.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…