Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 17:30 •
Stadion Polonii im. generala Kazimierza Sosnkowski
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.52)
1.55 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.6% | 25.6% | 55.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.2%
0 - 2
11.8%
1 - 1
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Chrobry Głogów | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Polonia Warszawa | 0 | 9.8% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Polonia Warszawa -29.6, Chrobry Głogów -15.2.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Polonia Warszawa
vs
Chrobry Głogów
Elo gapPolonia Warszawa +15
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3089.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3089.1
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1534.7 | 1554.4 |
| Form Elo | 1523.3 | 1554.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.2 | 1511.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1542.7 | 1535.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1494.7 | 1556.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.6 | -15.2 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Polonia Warszawa last-5 Elo change: -29.6; Chrobry Głogów last-5 Elo change: -15.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 30% | 30% |
| Defense | 50% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 36% | 47% | 41% | 47% | 50% | 48% |
| Draws | 21% | 33% | 28% | 20% | 21% | 21% |
| Loses | 43% | 20% | 31% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
Polonia WarszawaDLWWDLDWDLDLLWWWWWDWDWWLLDLLW
Chrobry GłogówWLDWDLDDWLWWWWLWLWLDWWLWLWDLW
League goals
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 27 | 45 | 23 | 18 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 23 | 20 | 43 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 83% | 83% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 38% | 48% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 14% | 10% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-2 | 1-4 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-6 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 32% | 68% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 47.2% | 53.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.90 @ Unibet
Draw3.74 @ Pinnacle
Away4.24 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.82 @ SBO
Under 2.52.04 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.10 @ William Hill
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League standings
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