Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 20:45 •
Estadio Arsenio Erico
Expected Goals
2.84 (league 0.85)
1.17 (league 0.85)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.0% | 15.1% | 12.9% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
3 - 1
8.1%
2 - 0
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo Recoleta | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.8% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Nacional Asuncion carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 60 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nacional Asuncion +4.5, Deportivo Recoleta -11.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Nacional Asuncion
vs
Deportivo Recoleta
Elo gapNacional Asuncion +60
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3103.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3103.3
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1564.1 | 1539.2 |
| Form Elo | 1569.2 | 1536.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1545.2 | 1545.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1558.3 | 1612.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1594 | 1535.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.5 | -11.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Nacional Asuncion last-5 Elo change: +4.5; Deportivo Recoleta last-5 Elo change: -11.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 31% | 69% |
| Defense | 56% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 9 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| Wins | 50% | 22% | 35% | 44% | 25% | 35% |
| Draws | 38% | 56% | 47% | 33% | 13% | 24% |
| Loses | 13% | 22% | 18% | 22% | 63% | 41% |
Nacional AsuncionWWWLWDDDDWLDWDLDD
Deportivo RecoletaDDWWLWDLDLLLWLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 10 | 23 | 17 | 9 | 26 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 7 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 71% | 82% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 29% | 35% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 12% | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 12% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nacional Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 31% | 69% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 46.5% | 53.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.73 @ William Hill
Draw3.75 @ Betfair
Away4.90 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.04 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.96 @ Unibet
No1.87 @ Betfair
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League standings
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