Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 11:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.48)
1.01 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.1% | 30.3% | 33.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.5%
1 - 0
13.4%
0 - 1
12.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Şahdağ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| MOIK | 0 | 12.7% | 12.8% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Şahdağ carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 21 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: MOIK +3.4, Şahdağ +16.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
MOIK
vs
Şahdağ
Elo gapŞahdağ +21
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2962.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2962.6
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1453.4 | 1509.2 |
| Form Elo | 1457.6 | 1523.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.7 | 1506.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1447 | 1497 |
| Defense Elo | 1404.7 | 1546.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.4 | +16.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. MOIK last-5 Elo change: +3.4; Şahdağ last-5 Elo change: +16.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 67% |
| Attack | 58% | 42% |
| Defense | 17% | 92% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| Wins | 55% | 17% | 35% | 45% | 42% | 43% |
| Draws | 9% | 33% | 22% | 36% | 8% | 22% |
| Loses | 36% | 50% | 43% | 18% | 50% | 35% |
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ŞahdağWLLDWLWLLLDDWWWWLDLWWDW
League goals
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 13 | 27 | 19 | 13 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 12 | 23 | 35 | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | MOIK | Şahdağ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 87% | 74% | 65% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 43% | 35% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 17% | 17% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 13% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | MOIK | Şahdağ |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 9% | 91% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 81% | 19% |
| Total | 50.5% | 49.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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