Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.71)
3.70 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | 8.2% | 70.0% |
best score tips
0 - 3
8.7%
0 - 4
8.0%
1 - 3
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
| América Mineiro U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Grêmio U20 | 0 | 1.0% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| 1 | 0.9% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Grêmio U20 -1.7, América Mineiro U20 +40.3.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Grêmio U20
vs
América Mineiro U20
Elo gapGrêmio U20 +4
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo3180.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3180.2
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1574.8 | 1605.4 |
| Form Elo | 1567.1 | 1627 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1515.7 | 1502.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1685.1 | 1580.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1521.7 | 1631 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.7 | +40.3 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Grêmio U20 last-5 Elo change: -1.7; América Mineiro U20 last-5 Elo change: +40.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 73% |
| Attack | 53% | 41% |
| Defense | 47% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
69%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 29% | 33% | 50% | 43% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 25% | 43% |
| Loses | 100% | 50% | 71% | 0% | 25% | 14% |
Grêmio U20LLLWLLW
América Mineiro U20LDDWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 9 | 9 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| GA avg | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 86% | 71% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 57% | 43% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 14% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 43% | 0% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-3 | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-5 | 4-1 | — | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Grêmio U20 | América Mineiro U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 18% | 82% |
| Poisson Distribution | 20% | 80% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 38.2% | 61.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…