Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional

Primera A — Colombia

Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 20:00 • Estadio Palogrande

Not Started

Once Caldas

—

Atletico Nacional

Expected Goals

2.15 (league 1.17) 2.46 (league 0.80)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
32.7%	18.9%	42.3%

best score tips

2 - 2

7.0%

1 - 2

6.5%

2 - 3

5.7%

Score & goals probability table

		Atletico Nacional
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Once Caldas	0	1.0%	2.5%	3.0%	2.5%	1.5%	0.8%
	1	2.1%	5.3%	6.5%	5.3%	3.3%	1.6%
	2	2.3%	5.6%	7.0%	5.7%	3.5%	1.7%
	3	1.6%	4.0%	5.0%	4.1%	2.5%	1.2%
	4	0.9%	2.2%	2.7%	2.2%	1.4%	0.7%
	5	0.4%	0.9%	1.1%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Once Caldas +2.9, Atletico Nacional +6.2.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Once Caldas Elo 1586.2 · +2.9

Atletico Nacional Elo 1616.8 · +6.2

Elo gapOnce Caldas +4

Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%

Expected home share51%

Combined Elo3203

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3203

Elo home share 51%

Match tone Strong Watch

Metric	Once Caldas	Atletico Nacional
Overall Elo	1586.2	1616.8
Form Elo	1591.4	1626.5
Home / Away Elo	1548.1	1537.9
Attack Elo	1532.7	1638.2
Defense Elo	1645.5	1640.6
Last 5 Elo change	+2.9	+6.2

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Once Caldas last-5 Elo change: +2.9; Atletico Nacional last-5 Elo change: +6.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Once Caldas	Atletico Nacional
Played	5	5
Form	40%	67%
Attack	42%	58%
Defense	42%	67%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	5 \| 1	7 \| 1.4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	7 \| 1.4	4 \| 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%

FT probability

2.5+

58%

FT probability

3.5+

41%

FT probability

BTTS

76%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

3-5

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Once Caldas			Atletico Nacional
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	9	8	17	9	9	18
Wins	56%	25%	41%	89%	56%	72%
Draws	33%	63%	47%	11%	0%	6%
Loses	11%	13%	12%	0%	44%	22%

Once CaldasWDDDDWLWWWWDLDDDW

Atletico NacionalWWWLWWLWWWLWWDWWWL

League goals

Metric	Once Caldas			Atletico Nacional
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	19	9	28	22	13	35
GF avg	2.1	1.1	1.6	2.4	1.4	1.9
GA total	13	7	20	3	11	14
GA avg	1.4	0.9	1.2	0.3	1.2	0.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Once Caldas		Atletico Nacional
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	94%	82%	72%	61%
1.5	41%	24%	72%	11%
2.5	18%	6%	33%	6%
3.5	12%	6%	17%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Once Caldas			Atletico Nacional
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	2	3	6	1	7
Failed to score	0	1	1	1	4	5

Penalties

Metric	Once Caldas	Atletico Nacional
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	3

Streaks

Metric	Once Caldas	Atletico Nacional
Wins	4	3
Draws	4	1
Losses	1	1

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-0	0-2	4-0	0-4
Biggest losses	1-4	2-1	—	3-0
Goals For	4	2	4	4
Goals Against	4	2	1	3

Model comparison

Metric	Once Caldas	Atletico Nacional
Form	38%	63%
Att	42%	58%
Def	36%	64%
Poisson Distribution	44%	56%
H2h	7%	93%
Goals	20%	80%
Total	31.2%	69.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Once Caldas vs Atletico Nacional

Metric	Once Caldas	Atletico Nacional
Scored (total \| %)	4 \| 100.00%	3 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	4	3