Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 20:30 •
Estadio Polideportivo Sur
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 1.22)
0.70 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 34.9% | 36.5% | 28.6% |
best score tips
0 - 0
22.1%
1 - 0
17.9%
0 - 1
15.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Tigres FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Envigado | 0 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Envigado carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 74 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Envigado +13.6, Tigres FC +10.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Envigado
vs
Tigres FC
Elo gapEnvigado +74
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo2971.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2971.5
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1505.2 | 1466.3 |
| Form Elo | 1516.6 | 1478.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1468.3 | 1480.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1463.8 | 1398 |
| Defense Elo | 1557.3 | 1541.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.6 | +10.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Envigado last-5 Elo change: +13.6; Tigres FC last-5 Elo change: +10.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 60% |
| Attack | 100% | 88% |
| Defense | 0% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| Wins | 43% | 67% | 56% | 44% | 29% | 38% |
| Draws | 29% | 0% | 13% | 22% | 43% | 31% |
| Loses | 29% | 33% | 31% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
EnvigadoWWDLLWWWDLWWLWWL
Tigres FCDWLDLLDDWWDLWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 17 | 25 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 5 | 11 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Envigado | Tigres FC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 94% | 56% | 69% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 31% | 25% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 6% | 6% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-2 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Envigado | Tigres FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 53.3% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…