Wed, Apr 29 2026 • 21:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.27 (league 1.71)
0.58 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.6% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
best score tips
3 - 0
12.4%
2 - 0
11.4%
4 - 0
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Botafogo U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vasco da Gama U20 | 0 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.2% | 5.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Vasco da Gama U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Vasco da Gama U20 +26.2, Botafogo U20 -22.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Vasco da Gama U20
vs
Botafogo U20
Elo gapVasco da Gama U20 +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3317.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3317.8
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1673.6 | 1644.2 |
| Form Elo | 1704.1 | 1629.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1602.3 | 1534.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1815.2 | 1715.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1605.1 | 1674.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +26.2 | -22.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Vasco da Gama U20 last-5 Elo change: +26.2; Botafogo U20 last-5 Elo change: -22.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 72% | 17% |
| Defense | 61% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Wins | 100% | 33% | 71% | 50% | 0% | 29% |
| Draws | 0% | 33% | 14% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 14% | 25% | 67% | 43% |
Vasco da Gama U20WWWLWWD
Botafogo U20LWDLDLW
League goals
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GF avg | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 86% | 71% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 86% | 43% | 14% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 14% | 0% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 1-4 | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vasco da Gama U20 | Botafogo U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 81% | 19% |
| Def | 46% | 54% |
| Poisson Distribution | 87% | 13% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 53.8% | 46.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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