Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 17:30 •
Oion Arena
Expected Goals
2.78 (league 1.55)
0.68 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.7% | 12.5% | 6.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.2%
3 - 0
11.3%
1 - 0
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Peña Balsamaiso | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Oyonesa | 0 | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.3% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.9% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Oyonesa carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 274 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Oyonesa +9.5, Peña Balsamaiso -24.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Oyonesa
vs
Peña Balsamaiso
Elo gapOyonesa +274
Home / draw / away68% / 18% / 14%
Expected home share83%
Combined Elo2906.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2906.6
Elo home share
83%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1572.9 | 1333.7 |
| Form Elo | 1586.8 | 1317.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.8 | 1426.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1539.5 | 1379.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1573.9 | 1223.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.5 | -24.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Oyonesa last-5 Elo change: +9.5; Peña Balsamaiso last-5 Elo change: -24.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 7% |
| Attack | 90% | 60% |
| Defense | 40% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 16 | 3.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 15 | 31 | 15 | 16 | 31 |
| Wins | 56% | 47% | 52% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 13% | 27% | 19% | 53% | 19% | 35% |
| Loses | 31% | 27% | 29% | 47% | 81% | 65% |
OyonesaLWLWWWWWDLWLLDWWLWWLLWDDWWWDDLW
Peña BalsamaisoDLLLDDLDLLLLLLDLLLDDLDLLDDLDLLL
League goals
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 23 | 49 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 19 | 19 | 38 | 32 | 43 | 75 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 84% | 52% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 68% | 35% | 26% | 61% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 3% | 0% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 2-0 | 0-7 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Oyonesa | Peña Balsamaiso |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 89% | 11% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 73% | 27% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 77% | 23% |
| Total | 76.7% | 23.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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