Alianza Atletico vs Macara

CONMEBOL Sudamericana — World

Fri, May 1 2026 • 02:00 • Estadio Miguel Grau

Not Started

home	draw	away
18.1%	49.1%	32.8%

		Macara
Alianza Atletico	0	41.1%	22.6%	6.2%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
1	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
2	2.4%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Away lean

Macara carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 24 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Alianza Atletico -0.2, Macara +23.4.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone

Alianza Atletico Elo 1502.9 · -0.2

Macara Elo 1561.7 · +23.4

Elo gapMacara +24

Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%

Expected home share47%

Combined Elo3064.6

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Away lean

Confidence band Lean confidence

Upset risk Medium-high

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3064.6

Elo home share 47%

Match tone Strong Watch

Metric	Alianza Atletico	Macara
Overall Elo	1502.9	1561.7
Form Elo	1495.8	1597
Home / Away Elo	1545.6	1541.8
Attack Elo	1443.9	1489.5
Defense Elo	1606	1618.9
Last 5 Elo change	-0.2	+23.4

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Alianza Atletico last-5 Elo change: -0.2; Macara last-5 Elo change: +23.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Alianza Atletico	Macara
Played	3	3
Form	44%	78%
Attack	31%	23%
Defense	77%	92%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	4 \| 1.3	3 \| 1
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	3 \| 1	1 \| 0.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.50

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

47%

FT probability

2.5+

33%

FT probability

3.5+

24%

FT probability

BTTS

62%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

3-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Alianza Atletico			Macara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	2	1	3	1	2	3
Wins	50%	0%	33%	0%	100%	67%
Draws	50%	0%	33%	100%	0%	33%
Loses	0%	100%	33%	0%	0%	0%

Alianza AtleticoWDL

MacaraWDW

League goals

Metric	Alianza Atletico			Macara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	3	1	4	1	2	3
GF avg	1.5	1.0	1.3	1.0	1.0	1.0
GA total	1	2	3	1	0	1
GA avg	0.5	2.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Alianza Atletico		Macara
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	100%	67%	100%	33%
1.5	33%	33%	0%	0%
2.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
3.5	0%	0%	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Alianza Atletico			Macara
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	0	1	0	2	2
Failed to score	0	0	0	0	0	0

Penalties

Metric	Alianza Atletico	Macara
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Alianza Atletico	Macara
Wins	1	1
Draws	1	1
Losses	0	0

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-0	—	—	0-1
Biggest losses	—	2-1	—	—
Goals For	2	1	1	1
Goals Against	1	2	1	0

Model comparison

Metric	Alianza Atletico	Macara
Form	36%	64%
Att	57%	43%
Def	25%	75%
Poisson Distribution	0%	100%
H2h	0%	0%
Goals	0%	0%
Total	39.3%	60.7%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.42 @ Betano

Draw3.10 @ Bet365

Away3.65 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.85 @ Betano

Under 2.51.47 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.25 @ Bet365

No1.66 @ Unibet

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Alianza Atletico vs Macara

Metric	Alianza Atletico	Macara
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Alianza Atletico vs Macara