Sat, May 2 2026 • 12:00 •
Ilburg-Stadion
Expected Goals
1.01 (league 1.64)
0.77 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.2% | 32.8% | 26.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.1%
0 - 0
17.0%
1 - 1
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Greifswalder FC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Eilenburg | 0 | 17.0% | 13.0% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.1% | 13.1% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Eilenburg +3.4, Greifswalder FC -2.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Eilenburg
vs
Greifswalder FC
Elo gapLevel
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo2955.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2955.1
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1460 | 1495.1 |
| Form Elo | 1459.7 | 1494.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494 | 1482.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1489 | 1463.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1447.7 | 1569.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.4 | -2.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Eilenburg last-5 Elo change: +3.4; Greifswalder FC last-5 Elo change: -2.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 36% | 14% |
| Defense | 55% | 82% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 27% | 0% | 13% | 25% | 20% | 23% |
| Draws | 27% | 44% | 35% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Loses | 47% | 56% | 52% | 38% | 53% | 45% |
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Greifswalder FCLWLDLLDLLDDLDWWLDDWLLLWDWLDDLLW
League goals
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 17 | 33 | 17 | 13 | 30 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 17 | 37 | 54 | 19 | 23 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 90% | 65% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 55% | 23% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 19% | 10% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | — | 3-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Eilenburg | Greifswalder FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 73% | 27% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 22% | 78% |
| Total | 45.2% | 54.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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