Segunda División — Chile
Sat, May 2 2026 • 21:00 • Estadio Regional de Los Andes
Not Started

Trasandino

—

Real San Joaquín

Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.56) 1.65 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.9% 23.2% 38.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.2%
1 - 2
8.4%
2 - 1
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
Real San Joaquín
0 1 2 3 4 5
Trasandino 0 3.8% 6.3% 5.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
1 6.1% 10.2% 8.4% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6%
2 5.0% 8.2% 6.8% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
3 2.7% 4.4% 3.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
4 1.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Trasandino carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Trasandino +4.6, Real San Joaquín +14.5.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Trasandino Elo 1446.6 · +4.6
vs
Real San Joaquín Elo 1444.2 · +14.5
Elo gapTrasandino +37
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2890.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2890.8
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Trasandino Real San Joaquín
Overall Elo1446.61444.2
Form Elo1448.81464.5
Home / Away Elo14841473.4
Attack Elo1482.11426.6
Defense Elo1425.11419.1
Last 5 Elo change+4.6+14.5

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Trasandino last-5 Elo change: +4.6; Real San Joaquín last-5 Elo change: +14.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTrasandinoReal San Joaquín
Played44
Form58%58%
Attack70%60%
Defense50%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.86 | 1.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 1.35 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-5
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Trasandino Real San Joaquín
HATHAT
Played224314
Wins100%0%50%33%100%50%
Draws0%50%25%33%0%25%
Loses0%50%25%33%0%25%
TrasandinoDWWL
Real San JoaquínLWWD

League goals

Metric Trasandino Real San Joaquín
HATHAT
GF total527426
GF avg2.51.01.81.32.01.5
GA total235415
GA avg1.01.51.31.31.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTrasandinoReal San Joaquín
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%75%75%75%
1.525%50%50%50%
2.525%0%25%0%
3.525%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTrasandinoReal San Joaquín
HATHAT
Clean sheets101101
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricTrasandinoReal San Joaquín
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricTrasandinoReal San Joaquín
Wins22
Draws10
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-2—3-21-2
Biggest losses—2-11-2—
Goals For4132
Goals Against2221

Model comparison

MetricTrasandinoReal San Joaquín
Form50%50%
Att54%46%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h20%80%
Goals45%55%
Total45.3%54.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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