Fri, Oct 10 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio Palogrande
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.47 (league 1.44) 1.41 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
62.3% 12.4% 11.2%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.5%
4 - 1
6.5%
2 - 1
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Once Caldas 0 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.6% 3.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.6% 6.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.3% 7.5% 5.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2%
4 4.6% 6.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
5 3.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOnce CaldasAtletico Nacional
Played44
Form75%83%
Attack75%63%
Defense88%88%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 310 | 2.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.52 | 0.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

7.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

75%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Once Caldas Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins100%50%75%100%50%75%
Draws0%0%0%0%50%25%
Loses0%50%25%0%0%0%

Form: Once Caldas: WLWW • Atletico Nacional: WWWD

League goals

Metric Once Caldas Atletico Nacional
HATHAT
GF total102125510
GF avg5.01.03.02.52.52.5
GA total022022
GA avg0.01.00.50.01.00.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOnce CaldasAtletico Nacional
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%50%100%25%
1.575%0%75%25%
2.550%0%50%0%
3.550%0%25%0%
4.525%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOnce CaldasAtletico Nacional
HATHAT
Clean sheets202213
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricOnce CaldasAtletico Nacional
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricOnce CaldasAtletico Nacional
Wins13
Draws00
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-01-24-00-3
Biggest losses1-0
Goals For6243
Goals Against0102

Model comparison

MetricOnce CaldasAtletico Nacional
Form47%53%
Att55%45%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h29%71%
Goals31%69%
Total42.4%57.6%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Atletico Nacional

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.72 @ 10Bet
Draw3.39 @ Pinnacle
Away2.66 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.11 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.83 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ 188Bet
No2.12 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Once Caldas = 3.47 (league 1.44), Atletico Nacional = 1.41 (league 0.89)

Atletico Nacional
0 1 2 3 4 5
Once Caldas 0 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.6% 3.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.6% 6.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.3% 7.5% 5.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2%
4 4.6% 6.5% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
5 3.2% 4.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 62.3% · Draw 12.4% · Away win 11.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1