Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 13:30 • Parque Abraham Paladino
Match Finished
2 - 0
Expected Goals
1.97 (league 1.10) 0.79 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.6% 20.8% 14.1%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.5%
2 - 0
12.3%
1 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Cerro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Progreso 0 6.4% 5.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 12.5% 9.9% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.3% 9.7% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricProgresoCerro
Played55
Form53%40%
Attack86%43%
Defense43%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 6 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Progreso Cerro
HATHAT
Played459459
Wins75%0%33%50%40%44%
Draws0%40%22%0%20%11%
Loses25%60%44%50%40%44%

Form: Progreso: LLLWLWDWD • Cerro: DLWWLLLWW

League goals

Metric Progreso Cerro
HATHAT
GF total7310448
GF avg1.80.61.11.00.80.9
GA total47114610
GA avg1.01.41.21.01.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineProgresoCerro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%56%67%56%
1.522%56%22%22%
2.511%11%0%11%
3.50%0%0%11%
4.50%0%0%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricProgresoCerro
HATHAT
Clean sheets224134
Failed to score022123

Penalties

MetricProgresoCerro
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricProgresoCerro
Wins12
Draws11
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-0—2-10-2
Biggest losses1-23-11-25-1
Goals For3122
Goals Against2325

Model comparison

MetricProgresoCerro
Form57%43%
Att67%33%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution63%37%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total58.5%41.5%

Advice: Double chance : Progreso or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.28 @ Unibet
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away3.67 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.54 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.58 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.17 @ 188Bet
No1.74 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Progreso = 1.97 (league 1.10), Cerro = 0.79 (league 1.02)

Cerro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Progreso 0 6.4% 5.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 12.5% 9.9% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.3% 9.7% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
3 8.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
4 4.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.6% · Draw 20.8% · Away win 14.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1