Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 19:00 • Abe Lenstra Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.48 (league 1.71) 1.29 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.3% 11.8% 9.8%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.7%
4 - 1
6.7%
2 - 1
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
Excelsior
0 1 2 3 4 5
Heerenveen 0 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.1% 6.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
3 6.0% 7.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
5 3.6% 4.7% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHeerenveenExcelsior
Played55
Form33%40%
Attack47%29%
Defense47%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Heerenveen Excelsior
HATHAT
Played437437
Wins25%0%14%25%33%29%
Draws50%33%43%0%0%0%
Loses25%67%43%75%67%71%

Form: Heerenveen: DLLDLWD • Excelsior: LLLWLWL

League goals

Metric Heerenveen Excelsior
HATHAT
GF total7310336
GF avg1.81.01.40.81.00.9
GA total751251015
GA avg1.81.71.71.33.32.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHeerenveenExcelsior
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%100%71%86%
1.543%71%14%57%
2.514%0%0%29%
3.50%0%0%29%
4.50%0%0%14%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHeerenveenExcelsior
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score011112

Penalties

MetricHeerenveenExcelsior
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricHeerenveenExcelsior
Wins11
Draws10
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-21-01-2
Biggest losses1-22-11-25-0
Goals For3212
Goals Against2225

Model comparison

MetricHeerenveenExcelsior
Form45%55%
Att62%38%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h38%62%
Goals14%86%
Total46.3%53.7%

Advice: Double chance : Heerenveen or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.70 @ 188Bet
Draw4.24 @ Pinnacle
Away4.93 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ SBO
Under 2.52.41 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.65 @ Unibet
No2.39 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Heerenveen = 3.48 (league 1.71), Excelsior = 1.29 (league 1.39)

Excelsior
0 1 2 3 4 5
Heerenveen 0 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 2.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.1% 6.6% 4.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
3 6.0% 7.7% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 5.2% 6.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
5 3.6% 4.7% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.3% · Draw 11.8% · Away win 9.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1