Fri, Oct 3 2025 • 18:00 • GS Staalwerken Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.64 (league 1.82) 1.36 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
43.5% 24.0% 31.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.1%
2 - 1
9.1%
1 - 0
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
Almere City FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Helmond Sport 0 4.9% 6.7% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
1 8.1% 11.1% 7.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.7% 9.1% 6.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
3 3.7% 5.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHelmond SportAlmere City FC
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack42%100%
Defense42%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 114 | 2.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Helmond Sport Almere City FC
HATHAT
Played459448
Wins75%0%33%50%25%38%
Draws0%20%11%0%0%0%
Loses25%80%56%50%75%63%

Form: Helmond Sport: LDWLLWLWL • Almere City FC: WLLLWLWL

League goals

Metric Helmond Sport Almere City FC
HATHAT
GF total63911718
GF avg1.50.61.02.81.82.3
GA total49135813
GA avg1.01.81.41.32.01.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHelmond SportAlmere City FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%78%75%75%
1.522%44%63%50%
2.50%22%38%25%
3.50%0%38%13%
4.50%0%13%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHelmond SportAlmere City FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets202202
Failed to score022112

Penalties

MetricHelmond SportAlmere City FC
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricHelmond SportAlmere City FC
Wins11
Draws10
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-05-01-4
Biggest losses1-33-12-42-0
Goals For2154
Goals Against3343

Model comparison

MetricHelmond SportAlmere City FC
Form50%50%
Att26%74%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total48.2%51.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Almere City FC

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.75 @ Betfair
Draw3.75 @ Bet365
Away2.56 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.72 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.19 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.58 @ Pinnacle
No2.42 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Helmond Sport = 1.64 (league 1.82), Almere City FC = 1.36 (league 1.32)

Almere City FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Helmond Sport 0 4.9% 6.7% 4.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
1 8.1% 11.1% 7.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.7% 9.1% 6.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
3 3.7% 5.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
4 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.5% · Draw 24.0% · Away win 31.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1