Fri, Oct 3 2025 • 18:00 • Sportcomplex De Toekomst
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.00 (league 1.80) 1.96 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.6% 21.5% 58.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
10.2%
1 - 1
10.2%
0 - 2
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
De Graafschap
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jong Ajax 0 5.2% 10.2% 10.0% 6.5% 3.2% 1.3%
1 5.2% 10.2% 10.0% 6.5% 3.2% 1.3%
2 2.6% 5.1% 5.0% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6%
3 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Played55
Form7%53%
Attack58%83%
Defense0%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.410 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

93%
FT probability

2.5+

65%
FT probability

3.5+

46%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Jong Ajax De Graafschap
HATHAT
Played459538
Wins25%0%11%40%33%38%
Draws25%20%22%20%33%25%
Loses50%80%67%40%33%38%

Form: Jong Ajax: LWLDDLLLL • De Graafschap: WLLLDWDW

League goals

Metric Jong Ajax De Graafschap
HATHAT
GF total77149413
GF avg1.81.41.61.81.31.6
GA total812209312
GA avg2.02.42.21.81.01.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineJong AjaxDe Graafschap
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%89%75%100%
1.544%67%50%38%
2.533%44%38%13%
3.511%22%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score123112

Penalties

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Wins11
Draws21
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1—3-21-3
Biggest losses2-42-02-31-0
Goals For4333
Goals Against4431

Model comparison

MetricJong AjaxDe Graafschap
Form11%89%
Att41%59%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution34%66%
H2h40%60%
Goals42%58%
Total34.3%65.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or De Graafschap

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.75 @ Betfair
Draw4.68 @ Pinnacle
Away1.85 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.33 @ 10Bet
Under 2.53.50 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.36 @ Pinnacle
No3.27 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Jong Ajax = 1.00 (league 1.80), De Graafschap = 1.96 (league 1.33)

De Graafschap
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jong Ajax 0 5.2% 10.2% 10.0% 6.5% 3.2% 1.3%
1 5.2% 10.2% 10.0% 6.5% 3.2% 1.3%
2 2.6% 5.1% 5.0% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6%
3 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.6% · Draw 21.5% · Away win 58.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1