Thu, Oct 2 2025 • 01:30 • Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.32 (league 1.47) 0.71 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
70.6% 16.7% 9.6%
best score tips
2 - 0
13.1%
1 - 0
11.2%
3 - 0
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
Atletico Grau
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Lima 0 4.8% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.2% 7.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.1% 9.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.1% 7.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.9% 4.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlianza LimaAtletico Grau
Played55
Form47%67%
Attack65%47%
Defense59%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Alianza Lima Atletico Grau
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins57%50%54%50%14%32%
Draws29%21%25%36%29%32%
Loses14%29%21%14%57%36%

Form: Alianza Lima: WLWWWLDWWLDWWDWWWDLDWDWWDLWL • Atletico Grau: WLLWDDDDLDDWWDLLWLWLDLLLWWDW

League goals

Metric Alianza Lima Atletico Grau
HATHAT
GF total261238221638
GF avg1.90.91.41.61.11.4
GA total91322122537
GA avg0.60.90.80.91.81.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlianza LimaAtletico Grau
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%46%79%71%
1.532%18%43%39%
2.518%11%14%18%
3.57%4%0%4%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlianza LimaAtletico Grau
HATHAT
Clean sheets8715628
Failed to score347246

Penalties

MetricAlianza LimaAtletico Grau
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%8 | 80.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 20.00%
Total810

Streaks

MetricAlianza LimaAtletico Grau
Wins32
Draws14
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-11-23-00-2
Biggest losses3-43-00-23-0
Goals For5233
Goals Against4334

Model comparison

MetricAlianza LimaAtletico Grau
Form41%59%
Att58%42%
Def30%70%
Poisson Distribution74%26%
H2h71%29%
Goals70%30%
Total57.3%42.7%

Advice: Double chance : Alianza Lima or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.53 @ Betano
Draw4.75 @ Bet365
Away7.20 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.05 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.27 @ 188Bet
No1.70 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Alianza Lima = 2.32 (league 1.47), Atletico Grau = 0.71 (league 0.94)

Atletico Grau
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Lima 0 4.8% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.2% 7.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 13.1% 9.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.1% 7.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 5.9% 4.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 70.6% · Draw 16.7% · Away win 9.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1