3. Liga — Germany
Tue, Sep 30 2025 • 17:00 • Tivoli
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.31 (league 1.62) 1.59 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.8% 19.8% 25.7%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 1
7.4%
2 - 2
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
Erzgebirge Aue
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alemannia Aachen 0 2.0% 3.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
1 4.7% 7.4% 5.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
2 5.4% 8.6% 6.8% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5%
3 4.2% 6.6% 5.3% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4%
4 2.4% 3.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
5 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlemannia AachenErzgebirge Aue
Played55
Form60%20%
Attack100%38%
Defense23%8%
Goals For (tot | avg)13 | 2.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 212 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

71%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Alemannia Aachen Erzgebirge Aue
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins25%50%38%50%0%25%
Draws0%25%13%25%0%13%
Loses75%25%50%25%100%63%

Form: Alemannia Aachen: DLLWLLWW • Erzgebirge Aue: DLWLLLLW

League goals

Metric Alemannia Aachen Erzgebirge Aue
HATHAT
GF total6915437
GF avg1.52.31.91.00.80.9
GA total1151641014
GA avg2.81.32.01.02.51.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlemannia AachenErzgebirge Aue
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%88%63%75%
1.550%75%25%50%
2.538%25%0%38%
3.513%13%0%13%
4.513%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlemannia AachenErzgebirge Aue
HATHAT
Clean sheets011202
Failed to score112213

Penalties

MetricAlemannia AachenErzgebirge Aue
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total50

Streaks

MetricAlemannia AachenErzgebirge Aue
Wins11
Draws11
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-21-52-0—
Biggest losses2-42-10-34-1
Goals For3521
Goals Against4234

Model comparison

MetricAlemannia AachenErzgebirge Aue
Form75%25%
Att72%28%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h20%80%
Goals38%63%
Total53.7%46.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Alemannia Aachen or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.28 @ Unibet
Draw3.75 @ Bet365
Away3.22 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.12 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.32 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Alemannia Aachen = 2.31 (league 1.62), Erzgebirge Aue = 1.59 (league 1.41)

Erzgebirge Aue
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alemannia Aachen 0 2.0% 3.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
1 4.7% 7.4% 5.9% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
2 5.4% 8.6% 6.8% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5%
3 4.2% 6.6% 5.3% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4%
4 2.4% 3.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
5 1.1% 1.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.8% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 25.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1