Mon, Sep 29 2025 • 16:00 • Bolt Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.35 (league 1.66) 2.09 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.8% 19.4% 33.6%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.1%
2 - 1
6.8%
1 - 2
6.1%
Score & goals probability table
Ilves
0 1 2 3 4 5
HJK helsinki 0 1.2% 2.5% 2.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%
1 2.8% 5.8% 6.1% 4.2% 2.2% 0.9%
2 3.3% 6.8% 7.1% 5.0% 2.6% 1.1%
3 2.5% 5.3% 5.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.8%
4 1.5% 3.1% 3.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5%
5 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHJK helsinkiIlves
Played55
Form73%100%
Attack100%93%
Defense53%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)17 | 3.414 | 2.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

78%
FT probability

3.5+

56%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric HJK helsinki Ilves
HATHAT
Played111324121224
Wins64%54%58%75%58%67%
Draws9%23%17%17%8%13%
Loses27%23%25%8%33%21%

Form: HJK helsinki: LLLWDWWWWDWWLLWWWLWWWWDD • Ilves: WWWLLWLWDWWLWWDWWDLWWWWW

League goals

Metric HJK helsinki Ilves
HATHAT
GF total332962262854
GF avg3.02.22.62.22.32.3
GA total171532161531
GA avg1.51.21.31.31.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHJK helsinkiIlves
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.579%75%92%63%
1.571%33%71%42%
2.554%21%42%17%
3.533%4%17%4%
4.58%0%4%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHJK helsinkiIlves
HATHAT
Clean sheets156369
Failed to score235112

Penalties

MetricHJK helsinkiIlves
Scored (total | %)7 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total76

Streaks

MetricHJK helsinkiIlves
Wins43
Draws11
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins8-20-43-00-5
Biggest losses1-43-02-35-1
Goals For8435
Goals Against4335

Model comparison

MetricHJK helsinkiIlves
Form42%58%
Att55%45%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h29%71%
Goals47%53%
Total44.3%55.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ilves and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.27 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.05 @ Marathonbet
Away2.93 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.44 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.53.00 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.42 @ Pinnacle
No3.00 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): HJK helsinki = 2.35 (league 1.66), Ilves = 2.09 (league 1.65)

Ilves
0 1 2 3 4 5
HJK helsinki 0 1.2% 2.5% 2.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%
1 2.8% 5.8% 6.1% 4.2% 2.2% 0.9%
2 3.3% 6.8% 7.1% 5.0% 2.6% 1.1%
3 2.5% 5.3% 5.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.8%
4 1.5% 3.1% 3.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5%
5 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.8% · Draw 19.4% · Away win 33.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1