Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 15:00 • Estadio Urbieta
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
5.19 (league 1.31) 6.37 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.9% 5.9% 9.9%
best score tips
5 - 5
2.6%
4 - 5
2.5%
5 - 4
2.1%
Score & goals probability table
Alfaro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gernika 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
2 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1%
3 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9%
4 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 2.5%
5 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGernikaAlfaro
Played33
Form33%22%
Attack36%43%
Defense57%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 1.76 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 27 | 2.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

75%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

88%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Gernika Alfaro
HATHAT
Played033213
Wins—33%33%0%0%0%
Draws—0%0%100%0%67%
Loses—67%67%0%100%33%

Form: Gernika: LLW • Alfaro: DLD

League goals

Metric Gernika Alfaro
HATHAT
GF total055336
GF avg0.01.71.71.53.02.0
GA total066347
GA avg0.02.02.01.54.02.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGernikaAlfaro
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%100%100%100%
1.533%67%67%67%
2.533%33%33%33%
3.533%0%0%33%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGernikaAlfaro
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricGernikaAlfaro
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricGernikaAlfaro
Wins00
Draws01
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-4——
Biggest losses—3-1—4-3
Goals For0423
Goals Against0324

Model comparison

MetricGernikaAlfaro
Form60%40%
Att45%55%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution0%0%
H2h50%50%
Goals63%38%
Total54.4%45.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Gernika or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.86 @ 1xBet
Draw3.55 @ Pinnacle
Away4.06 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.98 @ Pinnacle
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Gernika = 5.19 (league 1.31), Alfaro = 6.37 (league 0.94)

Alfaro
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gernika 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
2 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1%
3 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9%
4 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 2.5%
5 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 6.9% · Draw 5.9% · Away win 9.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1