J1 League — Japan
Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 08:00 • Toyota Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.33) 1.31 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
30.6% 27.4% 41.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 1
11.9%
1 - 0
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Kashima
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nagoya Grampus 0 9.1% 11.9% 7.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
1 9.8% 12.9% 8.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2 5.3% 7.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNagoya GrampusKashima
Played55
Form53%87%
Attack57%71%
Defense57%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Nagoya Grampus Kashima
HATHAT
Played151631161531
Wins40%19%29%69%53%61%
Draws33%25%29%19%7%13%
Loses27%56%42%13%40%26%

Form: Nagoya Grampus: LDLLDLWWLLWLLWDDDWWLDWDLLLLDWWD • Kashima: LWWWWDWLLLWWWWWWWLWDLLLWWDWDWWW

League goals

Metric Nagoya Grampus Kashima
HATHAT
GF total241438301848
GF avg1.60.91.21.91.21.5
GA total182543141428
GA avg1.21.61.40.90.90.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNagoya GrampusKashima
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%77%90%61%
1.532%42%39%19%
2.513%13%23%6%
3.50%6%3%3%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNagoya GrampusKashima
HATHAT
Clean sheets4377512
Failed to score257033

Penalties

MetricNagoya GrampusKashima
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total35

Streaks

MetricNagoya GrampusKashima
Wins27
Draws31
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-34-00-3
Biggest losses3-44-03-43-1
Goals For3343
Goals Against4443

Model comparison

MetricNagoya GrampusKashima
Form38%62%
Att44%56%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h38%62%
Goals33%67%
Total38.7%61.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Kashima

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.30 @ 188Bet
Draw3.40 @ 188Bet
Away2.32 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.99 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.19 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.82 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Nagoya Grampus = 1.08 (league 1.33), Kashima = 1.31 (league 1.10)

Kashima
0 1 2 3 4 5
Nagoya Grampus 0 9.1% 11.9% 7.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
1 9.8% 12.9% 8.5% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3%
2 5.3% 7.0% 4.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.6% · Draw 27.4% · Away win 41.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1