Primera A — Colombia
Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 21:10 • Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.78 (league 1.10) 0.88 (league 0.82)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.6% 23.1% 18.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
12.4%
2 - 0
11.1%
1 - 1
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
Llaneros
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Petrolera 0 7.0% 6.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 12.4% 11.0% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 11.1% 9.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
3 6.6% 5.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.9% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlianza PetroleraLlaneros
Played55
Form67%47%
Attack44%17%
Defense72%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

58%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Alianza Petrolera Llaneros
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins50%25%38%44%25%34%
Draws25%31%28%13%19%16%
Loses25%44%34%44%56%50%

Form: Alianza Petrolera: DDLDWWWLLDLLWWLDWWLWDWLDLLDWWLWD • Llaneros: LWDDLLWLLLLWWLLLWLLWDDWWWLLWLWDL

League goals

Metric Alianza Petrolera Llaneros
HATHAT
GF total221436151530
GF avg1.40.91.10.90.90.9
GA total122436152338
GA avg0.81.51.10.91.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlianza PetroleraLlaneros
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.566%56%53%75%
1.525%41%34%25%
2.513%16%6%13%
3.53%0%0%6%
4.53%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlianza PetroleraLlaneros
HATHAT
Clean sheets9514448
Failed to score47117815

Penalties

MetricAlianza PetroleraLlaneros
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 50.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 50.00%
Total22

Streaks

MetricAlianza PetroleraLlaneros
Wins33
Draws22
Losses24

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-10-22-00-3
Biggest losses1-33-01-34-0
Goals For6323
Goals Against3334

Model comparison

MetricAlianza PetroleraLlaneros
Form59%41%
Att73%27%
Def55%45%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total63.5%36.5%

Advice: Double chance : Alianza Petrolera or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.94 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.50 @ Unibet
Away4.50 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.45 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.58 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.22 @ 188Bet
No1.70 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Alianza Petrolera = 1.78 (league 1.10), Llaneros = 0.88 (league 0.82)

Llaneros
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Petrolera 0 7.0% 6.2% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
1 12.4% 11.0% 4.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 11.1% 9.8% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
3 6.6% 5.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.9% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.6% · Draw 23.1% · Away win 18.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1