Mon, Sep 22 2025 • 18:00 • AFAS Trainingscomplex
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.10 (league 1.82) 1.18 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.5% 28.5% 37.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.3%
0 - 1
12.1%
1 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
De Graafschap
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jong AZ 0 10.3% 12.1% 7.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.2% 13.3% 7.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricJong AZDe Graafschap
Played55
Form27%27%
Attack46%46%
Defense46%38%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Jong AZ De Graafschap
HATHAT
Played336415
Wins33%0%17%25%0%20%
Draws0%33%17%25%0%20%
Loses67%67%67%50%100%60%

Form: Jong AZ: LLLLWD • De Graafschap: WLLLD

League goals

Metric Jong AZ De Graafschap
HATHAT
GF total628606
GF avg2.00.71.31.50.01.2
GA total4610718
GA avg1.32.01.71.81.01.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineJong AZDe Graafschap
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%83%60%100%
1.533%33%40%40%
2.517%33%20%20%
3.517%17%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricJong AZDe Graafschap
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score112112

Penalties

MetricJong AZDe Graafschap
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricJong AZDe Graafschap
Wins11
Draws00
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-03-2
Biggest losses2-34-12-31-0
Goals For4130
Goals Against3431

Model comparison

MetricJong AZDe Graafschap
Form50%50%
Att50%50%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h29%71%
Goals41%59%
Total44.6%55.4%

Advice: Double chance : draw or De Graafschap

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.45 @ Bet365
Draw4.15 @ Pinnacle
Away2.63 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.39 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.53.20 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.39 @ Pinnacle
No3.30 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Jong AZ = 1.10 (league 1.82), De Graafschap = 1.18 (league 1.32)

De Graafschap
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jong AZ 0 10.3% 12.1% 7.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
1 11.2% 13.3% 7.8% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2%
2 6.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.5% · Draw 28.5% · Away win 37.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1