Sun, Oct 19 2025 • 13:00 • Centro Sportivo Al Maglio
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.89) 1.68 (league 1.57)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
18.2% 24.1% 56.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.7%
0 - 2
11.5%
1 - 1
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
Bavois
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugano II 0 8.2% 13.7% 11.5% 6.4% 2.7% 0.9%
1 6.7% 11.3% 9.5% 5.3% 2.2% 0.8%
2 2.8% 4.7% 3.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
3 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLugano IIBavois
Played55
Form20%100%
Attack47%79%
Defense42%68%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.815 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lugano II Bavois
HATHAT
Played57125611
Wins0%43%25%80%67%73%
Draws100%0%42%20%0%9%
Loses0%57%33%0%33%18%

Form: Lugano II: LDWWDLWDDLDL • Bavois: LWLWWDWWWWW

League goals

Metric Lugano II Bavois
HATHAT
GF total61319121325
GF avg1.21.91.62.42.22.3
GA total621276814
GA avg1.23.02.31.21.31.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLugano IIBavois
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%92%82%82%
1.558%67%73%36%
2.517%33%64%9%
3.50%17%9%0%
4.50%8%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLugano IIBavois
HATHAT
Clean sheets101112
Failed to score112112

Penalties

MetricLugano IIBavois
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricLugano IIBavois
Wins22
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-33-11-4
Biggest losses6-03-1
Goals For2334
Goals Against2623

Model comparison

MetricLugano IIBavois
Form17%83%
Att38%63%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution33%67%
H2h64%36%
Goals50%50%
Total39.5%60.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Bavois

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.35 @ Dafabet
Draw4.31 @ Pinnacle
Away2.06 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.60 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ Pinnacle
No2.88 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lugano II = 0.83 (league 1.89), Bavois = 1.68 (league 1.57)

Bavois
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lugano II 0 8.2% 13.7% 11.5% 6.4% 2.7% 0.9%
1 6.7% 11.3% 9.5% 5.3% 2.2% 0.8%
2 2.8% 4.7% 3.9% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
3 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 18.2% · Draw 24.1% · Away win 56.9%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1