Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 13:30 •
Campo Comunale
Expected Goals
2.04 (league 1.47)
1.31 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.4% | 21.4% | 24.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 1
9.4%
2 - 0
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Pavia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Varesina | 0 | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Varesina | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 7% |
| Attack | 55% | 45% |
| Defense | 27% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Varesina | Pavia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 0% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
| Draws | 50% | 50% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
| Loses | 50% | 25% | 38% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Form: Varesina: LLWLDDDD • Pavia: LLWLLLLD
League goals
| Metric | Varesina | Pavia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 8 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Varesina | Pavia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 88% | 75% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 63% | 13% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Varesina | Pavia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Varesina | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Varesina | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-2 | — | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-1 | 2-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Varesina | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 80% | 20% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 66.3% | 33.8% |
Advice: Double chance : Varesina or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Varesina = 2.04 (league 1.47), Pavia = 1.31 (league 1.22)
| Pavia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Varesina | 0 | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.4% · Draw 21.4% · Away win 24.2%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1