Sun, Oct 26 2025 • 15:00 • Campo Cha das Padeiras
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.93 (league 1.28) 0.50 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.4% 36.5% 19.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
24.0%
1 - 0
22.3%
0 - 1
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
Mafra
0 1 2 3 4 5
União Santarém 0 24.0% 12.0% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 22.3% 11.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.3% 5.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUnião SantarémMafra
Played55
Form33%73%
Attack27%64%
Defense45%82%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

55%
FT probability

2.5+

39%
FT probability

3.5+

28%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric União Santarém Mafra
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins33%25%29%75%0%43%
Draws33%25%29%25%67%43%
Loses33%50%43%0%33%14%

Form: União Santarém: WLDLLDW • Mafra: DLWDDWW

League goals

Metric União Santarém Mafra
HATHAT
GF total224729
GF avg0.70.50.61.80.71.3
GA total257257
GA avg0.71.31.00.51.71.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUnião SantarémMafra
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.543%71%86%57%
1.514%14%29%14%
2.50%14%14%14%
3.50%0%0%14%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUnião SantarémMafra
HATHAT
Clean sheets112213
Failed to score134011

Penalties

MetricUnião SantarémMafra
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricUnião SantarémMafra
Wins11
Draws12
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-01-23-1
Biggest losses0-13-04-1
Goals For1231
Goals Against1314

Model comparison

MetricUnião SantarémMafra
Form31%69%
Att30%70%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total36.8%63.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Mafra and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.88 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.09 @ Pinnacle
Away2.64 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.51 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.54 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.08 @ Pinnacle
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): União Santarém = 0.93 (league 1.28), Mafra = 0.50 (league 0.98)

Mafra
0 1 2 3 4 5
União Santarém 0 24.0% 12.0% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 22.3% 11.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.3% 5.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.4% · Draw 36.5% · Away win 19.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1