J3 League — Japan
Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 06:00 • Sunpro Alwin
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.02 (league 1.42) 1.48 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.9% 26.2% 47.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 1
12.2%
1 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Kitakyushu
0 1 2 3 4 5
Matsumoto Yamaga 0 8.2% 12.2% 9.0% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5%
1 8.4% 12.4% 9.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.3% 6.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
3 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMatsumoto YamagaKitakyushu
Played55
Form27%60%
Attack50%64%
Defense14%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.49 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.48 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Matsumoto Yamaga Kitakyushu
HATHAT
Played181937191837
Wins33%21%27%42%50%46%
Draws33%21%27%21%6%14%
Loses33%58%46%37%44%41%

Form: Matsumoto Yamaga: DLDWDLWLWWLDWLLWDLLWLWDDDLWDLLLLLLWDL • Kitakyushu: WLWWLWWLDLDWWDLWLLLLWWLLDLWWLWDWWWLLW

League goals

Metric Matsumoto Yamaga Kitakyushu
HATHAT
GF total211839192645
GF avg1.20.91.11.01.41.2
GA total222749182139
GA avg1.21.41.30.91.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMatsumoto YamagaKitakyushu
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%70%76%68%
1.530%32%32%24%
2.55%16%11%11%
3.50%5%3%3%
4.50%5%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMatsumoto YamagaKitakyushu
HATHAT
Clean sheets65117512
Failed to score3811459

Penalties

MetricMatsumoto YamagaKitakyushu
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total44

Streaks

MetricMatsumoto YamagaKitakyushu
Wins23
Draws31
Losses64

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-32-01-4
Biggest losses0-56-21-34-0
Goals For3324
Goals Against5634

Model comparison

MetricMatsumoto YamagaKitakyushu
Form31%69%
Att44%56%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution38%62%
H2h85%15%
Goals67%33%
Total50.8%49.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Kitakyushu

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.90 @ Betfair
Draw3.79 @ Pinnacle
Away1.98 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.98 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ 188Bet
No1.87 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Matsumoto Yamaga = 1.02 (league 1.42), Kitakyushu = 1.48 (league 1.14)

Kitakyushu
0 1 2 3 4 5
Matsumoto Yamaga 0 8.2% 12.2% 9.0% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5%
1 8.4% 12.4% 9.2% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
2 4.3% 6.3% 4.7% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%
3 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.9% · Draw 26.2% · Away win 47.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1