Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 13:30 • Tullio Saleri
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.08 (league 1.30) 1.34 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.9% 27.2% 42.5%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 1
11.9%
1 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lumezzane 0 8.9% 11.9% 8.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
1 9.6% 12.9% 8.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3%
2 5.2% 6.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLumezzaneNovara
Played55
Form60%53%
Attack100%63%
Defense38%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lumezzane Novara
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins29%25%27%25%14%20%
Draws29%25%27%50%71%60%
Loses43%50%47%25%14%20%

Form: Lumezzane: LLLLWWLLLDDDDWW • Novara: DDDDLDLDDWDDWWL

League goals

Metric Lumezzane Novara
HATHAT
GF total107175712
GF avg1.40.91.10.61.00.8
GA total914235712
GA avg1.31.81.50.61.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLumezzaneNovara
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%73%67%60%
1.527%47%13%13%
2.513%20%0%7%
3.50%7%0%0%
4.50%7%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLumezzaneNovara
HATHAT
Clean sheets224336
Failed to score134325

Penalties

MetricLumezzaneNovara
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricLumezzaneNovara
Wins22
Draws44
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-11-00-1
Biggest losses2-35-00-13-2
Goals For3312
Goals Against3513

Model comparison

MetricLumezzaneNovara
Form53%47%
Att62%38%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total51.3%48.7%

Advice: Double chance : Lumezzane or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.73 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.00 @ Bet365
Away2.85 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.29 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.90 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lumezzane = 1.08 (league 1.30), Novara = 1.34 (league 0.97)

Novara
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lumezzane 0 8.9% 11.9% 8.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.3%
1 9.6% 12.9% 8.6% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3%
2 5.2% 6.9% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
3 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.9% · Draw 27.2% · Away win 42.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1