Serie A — Brazil
Wed, Dec 3 2025 • 00:30 • Arena do Grêmio
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.31) 0.86 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
51.7% 26.2% 21.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
14.2%
1 - 1
12.2%
2 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gremio 0 9.5% 8.2% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 14.2% 12.2% 5.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 10.6% 9.1% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 5.3% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGremioFluminense
Played55
Form47%73%
Attack82%82%
Defense27%91%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.89 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.61 | 0.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Gremio Fluminense
HATHAT
Played181836181836
Wins50%17%33%78%17%47%
Draws28%28%28%6%33%19%
Loses22%56%39%17%50%33%

Form: Gremio: WLLLDDWDLWWDLDLWLLWDDLWDWDLWLWLLDWLW • Fluminense: LWWWDLWLDWWLLLLWDWLDLWWDWLWLWWLWDWDW

League goals

Metric Gremio Fluminense
HATHAT
GF total231942291746
GF avg1.31.11.21.60.91.3
GA total153348112738
GA avg0.81.81.30.61.51.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGremioFluminense
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.569%83%72%58%
1.533%31%39%33%
2.514%11%8%11%
3.50%8%3%3%
4.50%0%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGremioFluminense
HATHAT
Clean sheets5169615
Failed to score56112810

Penalties

MetricGremioFluminense
Scored (total | %)10 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total104

Streaks

MetricGremioFluminense
Wins23
Draws21
Losses34

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-11-36-00-2
Biggest losses0-24-00-24-2
Goals For3363
Goals Against2424

Model comparison

MetricGremioFluminense
Form39%61%
Att50%50%
Def11%89%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total43.5%56.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Fluminense

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.10 @ 10Bet
Draw3.25 @ Unibet
Away2.57 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.30 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.95 @ Pinnacle
No1.91 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Gremio = 1.49 (league 1.31), Fluminense = 0.86 (league 0.84)

Fluminense
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gremio 0 9.5% 8.2% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 14.2% 12.2% 5.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 10.6% 9.1% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
3 5.3% 4.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 51.7% · Draw 26.2% · Away win 21.6%

Vtot 15 , Vtod1