Sun, Dec 7 2025 • 18:00 • Estádio José Gomes
Match Finished
3 - 1
Expected Goals
2.88 (league 1.42) 1.26 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.5% 15.3% 13.8%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.3%
3 - 1
8.0%
2 - 0
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
1 4.6% 5.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.6% 8.3% 5.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 6.4% 8.0% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 4.6% 5.7% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
5 2.6% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEstrelaArouca
Played55
Form27%7%
Attack47%27%
Defense20%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.416 | 3.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Estrela Arouca
HATHAT
Played66127512
Wins17%17%17%14%20%17%
Draws33%50%42%29%20%25%
Loses50%33%42%57%60%58%

Form: Estrela: DLDDLDWLLWDL • Arouca: WLDDLWLDLLLL

League goals

Metric Estrela Arouca
HATHAT
GF total76137613
GF avg1.21.01.11.01.21.1
GA total81018171734
GA avg1.31.71.52.43.42.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEstrelaArouca
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%75%50%100%
1.525%50%33%67%
2.517%17%25%50%
3.58%8%0%42%
4.58%0%0%17%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEstrelaArouca
HATHAT
Clean sheets123000
Failed to score246426

Penalties

MetricEstrelaArouca
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricEstrelaArouca
Wins11
Draws22
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-03-53-11-2
Biggest losses0-24-00-46-0
Goals For3533
Goals Against2446

Model comparison

MetricEstrelaArouca
Form80%20%
Att64%36%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution70%30%
H2h36%64%
Goals33%67%
Total56.7%43.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Estrela or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.04 @ 1xBet
Draw3.40 @ Unibet
Away4.33 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.27 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.73 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ Pinnacle
No1.89 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Estrela = 2.88 (league 1.42), Arouca = 1.26 (league 1.24)

Arouca
0 1 2 3 4 5
Estrela 0 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
1 4.6% 5.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.6% 8.3% 5.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 6.4% 8.0% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
4 4.6% 5.7% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
5 2.6% 3.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.5% · Draw 15.3% · Away win 13.8%

vtt 11 , vtd1