Serie A — Italy
Fri, Dec 12 2025 • 19:45 • Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
1.31 (league 1.23) 1.52 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
32.5% 25.0% 41.8%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.8%
0 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
Pisa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lecce 0 5.9% 9.0% 6.8% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4%
1 7.8% 11.8% 8.9% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.1% 7.7% 5.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 2.2% 3.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLeccePisa
Played55
Form47%33%
Attack21%36%
Defense64%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

70%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lecce Pisa
HATHAT
Played77148614
Wins14%29%21%13%0%7%
Draws43%14%29%38%67%50%
Loses43%57%50%50%33%43%

Form: Lecce: DLLLDWDLLWDLWL • Pisa: DLLLDLDDDDWDLL

League goals

Metric Lecce Pisa
HATHAT
GF total55101910
GF avg0.70.70.70.11.50.7
GA total8111951419
GA avg1.11.61.40.62.31.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLeccePisa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%64%43%71%
1.521%50%29%43%
2.50%14%0%14%
3.50%7%0%7%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLeccePisa
HATHAT
Clean sheets235404
Failed to score437718

Penalties

MetricLeccePisa
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total04

Streaks

MetricLeccePisa
Wins11
Draws14
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-11-0—
Biggest losses0-24-10-24-0
Goals For2212
Goals Against2424

Model comparison

MetricLeccePisa
Form58%42%
Att38%63%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h50%50%
Goals43%57%
Total48.7%51.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Pisa

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.54 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.97 @ 1xBet
Away3.52 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.90 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.47 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.27 @ Pinnacle
No1.72 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Lecce = 1.31 (league 1.23), Pisa = 1.52 (league 1.09)

Pisa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lecce 0 5.9% 9.0% 6.8% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4%
1 7.8% 11.8% 8.9% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.1% 7.7% 5.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3%
3 2.2% 3.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 32.5% · Draw 25.0% · Away win 41.8%

Vtot 24 , Vtod1