Sat, Dec 27 2025 • 17:30 • Stamford Bridge
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.39 (league 1.51) 1.05 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
44.4% 26.9% 28.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.7%
1 - 0
12.1%
0 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Aston Villa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chelsea 0 8.8% 9.2% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 12.1% 12.7% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.4% 8.8% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 3.9% 4.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChelseaAston Villa
Played55
Form40%100%
Attack46%92%
Defense54%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.212 | 2.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chelsea Aston Villa
HATHAT
Played89179817
Wins50%44%47%78%50%65%
Draws25%33%29%11%25%18%
Loses25%22%24%11%25%18%

Form: Chelsea: DWWDLLWWLWWWDLDWD • Aston Villa: DLLDDWWWWLWWWWWWW

League goals

Metric Chelsea Aston Villa
HATHAT
GF total121729151227
GF avg1.51.91.71.71.51.6
GA total7101771118
GA avg0.91.11.00.81.41.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChelseaAston Villa
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%53%71%71%
1.553%35%53%24%
2.518%12%24%12%
3.56%0%12%0%
4.56%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChelseaAston Villa
HATHAT
Clean sheets448415
Failed to score112235

Penalties

MetricChelseaAston Villa
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricChelseaAston Villa
Wins34
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-54-03-4
Biggest losses1-33-10-32-0
Goals For3544
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricChelseaAston Villa
Form29%71%
Att33%67%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h62%38%
Goals64%36%
Total49.5%50.5%

Advice: Double chance : Chelsea or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.84 @ 1xBet
Draw4.05 @ Betano
Away4.62 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.83 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.13 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.75 @ Bet365
No2.21 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chelsea = 1.39 (league 1.51), Aston Villa = 1.05 (league 1.29)

Aston Villa
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chelsea 0 8.8% 9.2% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
1 12.1% 12.7% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 8.4% 8.8% 4.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
3 3.9% 4.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 44.4% · Draw 26.9% · Away win 28.3%

vtt 75 , vtd1