League One — England
Fri, Dec 26 2025 • 15:00 • Pirelli Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.50 (league 1.44) 1.11 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.7% 32.8% 50.4%
best score tips
0 - 1
22.2%
0 - 0
20.1%
0 - 2
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
Northampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Burton Albion 0 20.1% 22.2% 12.2% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.1% 11.1% 6.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 2.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBurton AlbionNorthampton
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack21%64%
Defense50%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

55%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Burton Albion Northampton
HATHAT
Played10102011920
Wins30%30%30%45%33%40%
Draws20%40%30%18%11%15%
Loses50%30%40%36%56%45%

Form: Burton Albion: WLDLLLDLWDWLWDWWLLDD • Northampton: LDLLWWWLWDLWLLWLWDLW

League goals

Metric Burton Albion Northampton
HATHAT
GF total6121813821
GF avg0.61.20.91.20.91.1
GA total141226101121
GA avg1.41.21.30.91.21.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBurton AlbionNorthampton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.555%65%65%65%
1.530%35%30%30%
2.55%20%10%10%
3.50%10%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBurton AlbionNorthampton
HATHAT
Clean sheets437437
Failed to score729347

Penalties

MetricBurton AlbionNorthampton
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricBurton AlbionNorthampton
Wins23
Draws11
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-23-10-3
Biggest losses0-43-21-33-1
Goals For3233
Goals Against4333

Model comparison

MetricBurton AlbionNorthampton
Form42%58%
Att25%75%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution31%69%
H2h29%71%
Goals42%58%
Total36.5%63.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Northampton

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.29 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.31 @ Pinnacle
Away3.40 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.28 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.99 @ Pinnacle
No1.87 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Burton Albion = 0.50 (league 1.44), Northampton = 1.11 (league 1.14)

Northampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Burton Albion 0 20.1% 22.2% 12.2% 4.5% 1.2% 0.3%
1 10.1% 11.1% 6.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 2.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.7% · Draw 32.8% · Away win 50.4%

Vtot 30 , Vtod1