Thu, Jan 1 2026 • 15:00 • Pride Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.38) 1.88 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.5% 22.4% 53.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
Middlesbrough
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 4.9% 9.2% 8.7% 5.5% 2.6% 1.0%
1 5.5% 10.5% 9.8% 6.2% 2.9% 1.1%
2 3.1% 5.9% 5.6% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6%
3 1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDerbyMiddlesbrough
Played55
Form40%47%
Attack58%42%
Defense58%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Derby Middlesbrough
HATHAT
Played121224121224
Wins25%42%33%58%42%50%
Draws42%25%33%25%33%29%
Loses33%33%33%17%25%21%

Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDL • Middlesbrough: WWWWDWDDLWWDLDWDLWWWWLDL

League goals

Metric Derby Middlesbrough
HATHAT
GF total151833161733
GF avg1.31.51.41.31.41.4
GA total181533111425
GA avg1.51.31.40.91.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDerbyMiddlesbrough
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%83%75%75%
1.533%29%46%17%
2.513%17%13%8%
3.50%4%4%4%
4.50%4%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDerbyMiddlesbrough
HATHAT
Clean sheets224426
Failed to score112336

Penalties

MetricDerbyMiddlesbrough
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricDerbyMiddlesbrough
Wins54
Draws32
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-33-11-4
Biggest losses3-53-12-43-0
Goals For3334
Goals Against5343

Model comparison

MetricDerbyMiddlesbrough
Form46%54%
Att58%42%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution37%63%
H2h29%71%
Goals30%70%
Total41.7%58.3%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Middlesbrough

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.21 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.37 @ Pinnacle
Away2.40 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.24 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.73 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.92 @ 188Bet
No1.95 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.13 (league 1.38), Middlesbrough = 1.88 (league 1.11)

Middlesbrough
0 1 2 3 4 5
Derby 0 4.9% 9.2% 8.7% 5.5% 2.6% 1.0%
1 5.5% 10.5% 9.8% 6.2% 2.9% 1.1%
2 3.1% 5.9% 5.6% 3.5% 1.6% 0.6%
3 1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.5% · Draw 22.4% · Away win 53.7%

vtt 22 , vtd1