Liga 3 — Portugal
Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 15:00 • Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
1.24 (league 1.25) 0.69 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
49.4% 29.8% 20.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
18.0%
0 - 0
14.5%
1 - 1
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fafe 0 14.5% 10.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 18.0% 12.4% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.2% 7.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFafeVarzim
Played55
Form33%40%
Attack32%18%
Defense64%86%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fafe Varzim
HATHAT
Played77148614
Wins57%0%29%38%17%29%
Draws14%57%36%50%50%50%
Loses29%43%36%13%33%21%

Form: Fafe: LDDLDWWWLDWDLL • Varzim: WWLDDDLDWDDWDL

League goals

Metric Fafe Varzim
HATHAT
GF total971613619
GF avg1.31.01.11.61.01.4
GA total513187714
GA avg0.71.91.30.91.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFafeVarzim
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.579%71%71%71%
1.529%29%36%21%
2.57%14%21%7%
3.50%7%7%0%
4.50%7%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFafeVarzim
HATHAT
Clean sheets404224
Failed to score213224

Penalties

MetricFafeVarzim
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricFafeVarzim
Wins32
Draws23
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-0—4-00-1
Biggest losses0-25-10-12-1
Goals For3243
Goals Against2523

Model comparison

MetricFafeVarzim
Form45%55%
Att64%36%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution61%39%
H2h71%29%
Goals60%40%
Total54.7%45.3%

Advice: Double chance : Fafe or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.43 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.24 @ Pinnacle
Away3.30 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.26 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Fafe = 1.24 (league 1.25), Varzim = 0.69 (league 1.01)

Varzim
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fafe 0 14.5% 10.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 18.0% 12.4% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.2% 7.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 4.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.4% · Draw 29.8% · Away win 20.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1