Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 13:30 • Stadio Comunale
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.50 (league 1.39) 1.19 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
15.7% 31.1% 53.0%
best score tips
0 - 1
21.9%
0 - 0
18.4%
0 - 2
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
Varesina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Oltrepò 0 18.4% 21.9% 13.0% 5.2% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.3% 11.0% 6.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricOltrepòVaresina
Played55
Form47%27%
Attack36%36%
Defense55%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Oltrepò Varesina
HATHAT
Played8101810818
Wins13%60%39%0%25%11%
Draws38%20%28%50%38%44%
Loses50%20%33%50%38%44%

Form: Oltrepò: WWLDLWDLDLDWWLDLWW • Varesina: LLWLDDDDDLDDLWLLLD

League goals

Metric Oltrepò Varesina
HATHAT
GF total4151991019
GF avg0.51.51.10.91.31.1
GA total91322151126
GA avg1.11.31.21.51.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineOltrepòVaresina
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%67%72%83%
1.522%39%33%56%
2.56%11%0%6%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricOltrepòVaresina
HATHAT
Clean sheets336213
Failed to score404415

Penalties

MetricOltrepòVaresina
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 66.67%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 33.33%
Total13

Streaks

MetricOltrepòVaresina
Wins21
Draws15
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-02-30-2
Biggest losses1-34-10-22-0
Goals For1322
Goals Against3432

Model comparison

MetricOltrepòVaresina
Form64%36%
Att50%50%
Def58%42%
Poisson Distribution34%66%
H2h100%0%
Goals60%40%
Total53.2%46.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Oltrepò or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.16 @ Dafabet
Draw3.10 @ 10Bet
Away3.25 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.25 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.62 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.84 @ Marathonbet
No1.83 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Oltrepò = 0.50 (league 1.39), Varesina = 1.19 (league 1.20)

Varesina
0 1 2 3 4 5
Oltrepò 0 18.4% 21.9% 13.0% 5.2% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.3% 11.0% 6.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
2 2.3% 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.7% · Draw 31.1% · Away win 53.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1