Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 13:00 • Nyayo National Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.56 (league 1.01) 1.22 (league 0.90)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.0% 30.6% 52.3%
best score tips
0 - 1
20.7%
0 - 0
17.0%
0 - 2
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
AFC Leopards
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tusker 0 17.0% 20.7% 12.6% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4%
1 9.4% 11.5% 7.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
2 2.6% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTuskerAFC Leopards
Played55
Form80%67%
Attack56%56%
Defense89%78%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

50%
FT probability

2.5+

35%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

57%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tusker AFC Leopards
HATHAT
Played78157815
Wins29%63%47%43%50%47%
Draws29%13%20%43%38%40%
Loses43%25%33%14%13%13%

Form: Tusker: LLDDWWDWLLWWWLW • AFC Leopards: DDDWWWLDDWDWWLW

League goals

Metric Tusker AFC Leopards
HATHAT
GF total58137916
GF avg0.71.00.91.01.11.1
GA total74114610
GA avg1.00.50.70.60.80.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTuskerAFC Leopards
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%53%67%53%
1.513%20%40%13%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTuskerAFC Leopards
HATHAT
Clean sheets257347
Failed to score314325

Penalties

MetricTuskerAFC Leopards
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricTuskerAFC Leopards
Wins33
Draws23
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-10-22-00-2
Biggest losses0-22-10-12-0
Goals For2222
Goals Against2212

Model comparison

MetricTuskerAFC Leopards
Form55%45%
Att50%50%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution35%65%
H2h62%38%
Goals43%57%
Total52.0%48.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Tusker or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.24 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.75 @ Bet365
Away2.61 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.47 @ Marathonbet
No1.50 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.53.25 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.33 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tusker = 0.56 (league 1.01), AFC Leopards = 1.22 (league 0.90)

AFC Leopards
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tusker 0 17.0% 20.7% 12.6% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4%
1 9.4% 11.5% 7.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
2 2.6% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.0% · Draw 30.6% · Away win 52.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1