Fri, Jan 9 2026 • 16:00 • Stade Ibn-Batouta
Match Finished
0 - 1
Expected Goals
0.58 (league 1.29) 2.82 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
5.1% 11.5% 76.7%
best score tips
0 - 2
13.2%
0 - 3
12.5%
0 - 1
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
Senegal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mali 0 3.3% 9.4% 13.2% 12.5% 8.8% 5.0%
1 1.9% 5.4% 7.7% 7.2% 5.1% 2.9%
2 0.6% 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8%
3 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMaliSenegal
Played44
Form50%83%
Attack27%67%
Defense80%87%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 110 | 2.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.82 | 0.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mali Senegal
HATHAT
Played224314
Wins50%0%25%67%100%75%
Draws50%100%75%33%0%25%
Loses0%0%0%0%0%0%

Form: Mali: DDDW • Senegal: WDWW

League goals

Metric Mali Senegal
HATHAT
GF total3147310
GF avg1.50.51.02.33.02.5
GA total213202
GA avg1.00.50.80.70.00.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMaliSenegal
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%100%50%
1.525%0%75%0%
2.50%0%75%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMaliSenegal
HATHAT
Clean sheets011112
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricMaliSenegal
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricMaliSenegal
Wins01
Draws31
Losses00

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-1—3-00-3
Biggest losses————
Goals For2133
Goals Against1110

Model comparison

MetricMaliSenegal
Form38%63%
Att29%71%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h20%80%
Goals33%67%
Total32.0%68.2%

Advice: Winner : Senegal

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home7.15 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Dafabet
Away1.72 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.79 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.55 @ Superbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.70 @ Pinnacle
No1.55 @ Superbet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mali = 0.58 (league 1.29), Senegal = 2.82 (league 1.06)

Senegal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mali 0 3.3% 9.4% 13.2% 12.5% 8.8% 5.0%
1 1.9% 5.4% 7.7% 7.2% 5.1% 2.9%
2 0.6% 1.6% 2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8%
3 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 5.1% · Draw 11.5% · Away win 76.7%

vtt 3 , vtd1