Liga MX — Mexico
Thu, Jan 15 2026 • 03:10 • Estadio Nemesio Diez
Match Finished
Expected Goals
4.18 (league 1.54) 1.13 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.0% 7.5% 5.0%
best score tips
4 - 1
7.1%
3 - 1
6.8%
4 - 0
6.3%
Score & goals probability table
Santos Laguna
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 4.3% 4.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
3 6.0% 6.8% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.3% 7.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
5 5.3% 5.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTolucaSantos Laguna
Played55
Form60%47%
Attack78%89%
Defense44%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Toluca Santos Laguna
HATHAT
Played12122410818
Wins67%58%63%60%0%33%
Draws25%17%21%0%25%11%
Loses8%25%17%40%75%56%

Form: Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLWW • Santos Laguna: WLLWLLLDLWLLWDWLWL

League goals

Metric Toluca Santos Laguna
HATHAT
GF total33195215823
GF avg2.81.62.21.51.01.3
GA total15924131831
GA avg1.30.81.01.32.31.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTolucaSantos Laguna
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%67%78%72%
1.567%25%39%50%
2.550%4%11%33%
3.517%4%0%17%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTolucaSantos Laguna
HATHAT
Clean sheets358505
Failed to score156134

Penalties

MetricTolucaSantos Laguna
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricTolucaSantos Laguna
Wins71
Draws31
Losses13

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-33-0—
Biggest losses3-41-01-44-1
Goals For6432
Goals Against4244

Model comparison

MetricTolucaSantos Laguna
Form56%44%
Att47%53%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution78%22%
H2h60%40%
Goals50%50%
Total59.7%40.3%

Advice: Double chance : Toluca or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.21 @ 10Bet
Draw8.30 @ Pinnacle
Away13.50 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.30 @ 10Bet
Under 2.54.10 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.73 @ 1xBet
No2.18 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Toluca = 4.18 (league 1.54), Santos Laguna = 1.13 (league 1.15)

Santos Laguna
0 1 2 3 4 5
Toluca 0 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 4.3% 4.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
3 6.0% 6.8% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.3% 7.1% 4.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
5 5.3% 5.9% 3.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.0% · Draw 7.5% · Away win 5.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1