Fri, Jan 23 2026 • 15:00 • Neftci Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.21) 1.59 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.8% 22.8% 34.9%
best score tips
1 - 1
9.9%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
Zira
0 1 2 3 4 5
Neftchi Baku 0 3.6% 5.7% 4.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3%
1 6.2% 9.9% 7.9% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.6% 6.9% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5%
3 3.1% 5.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
4 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNeftchi BakuZira
Played55
Form33%53%
Attack46%38%
Defense38%77%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Neftchi Baku Zira
HATHAT
Played88169716
Wins13%38%25%44%43%44%
Draws63%38%50%56%29%44%
Loses25%25%25%0%29%13%

Form: Neftchi Baku: DDLDWDDDWWLLDLDW • Zira: DWWDWDDLWWDWWDLD

League goals

Metric Neftchi Baku Zira
HATHAT
GF total12820131023
GF avg1.51.01.31.41.41.4
GA total1071751015
GA avg1.30.91.10.61.40.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNeftchi BakuZira
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%63%81%63%
1.550%38%38%25%
2.56%6%13%6%
3.56%0%6%0%
4.56%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNeftchi BakuZira
HATHAT
Clean sheets246516
Failed to score347213

Penalties

MetricNeftchi BakuZira
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricNeftchi BakuZira
Wins22
Draws32
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-25-00-2
Biggest losses2-32-0—3-0
Goals For5253
Goals Against3223

Model comparison

MetricNeftchi BakuZira
Form38%62%
Att55%45%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h50%50%
Goals47%53%
Total45.2%54.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Zira

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.67 @ Betano
Draw3.05 @ 188Bet
Away2.85 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.52 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.53 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.12 @ Superbet
No1.73 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Neftchi Baku = 1.74 (league 1.21), Zira = 1.59 (league 1.14)

Zira
0 1 2 3 4 5
Neftchi Baku 0 3.6% 5.7% 4.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3%
1 6.2% 9.9% 7.9% 4.2% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.4% 8.6% 6.9% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5%
3 3.1% 5.0% 4.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
4 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.8% · Draw 22.8% · Away win 34.9%

vtt 4 , vtd1