Sat, Jan 24 2026 • 01:00 • Venue TBA
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.62) 0.96 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.7% 32.4% 35.8%
best score tips
0 - 0
15.8%
0 - 1
15.2%
1 - 0
14.0%
Score & goals probability table
Tapatío
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tepatitlán 0 15.8% 15.2% 7.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
1 14.0% 13.4% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricTepatitlánTapatío
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack23%100%
Defense69%23%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.613 | 2.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.810 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

69%
FT probability

2.5+

49%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Tepatitlán Tapatío
HATHAT
Played1010208816
Wins30%30%30%50%13%31%
Draws30%50%40%13%38%25%
Loses40%20%30%38%50%44%

Form: Tepatitlán: DDWWWDDLDWLLDLWDLLDW • Tapatío: WWLDWLLDLLDLLWDW

League goals

Metric Tepatitlán Tapatío
HATHAT
GF total11142518826
GF avg1.11.41.32.31.01.6
GA total101020121022
GA avg1.01.01.01.51.31.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineTepatitlánTapatío
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%75%75%81%
1.525%20%50%44%
2.525%5%25%13%
3.55%0%13%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricTepatitlánTapatío
HATHAT
Clean sheets325213
Failed to score336134

Penalties

MetricTepatitlánTapatío
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total07

Streaks

MetricTepatitlánTapatío
Wins32
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-44-11-3
Biggest losses1-21-01-32-1
Goals For3443
Goals Against2332

Model comparison

MetricTepatitlánTapatío
Form42%58%
Att19%81%
Def71%29%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h62%38%
Goals55%45%
Total50.0%50.0%

Advice: Double chance : Tepatitlán or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.86 @ Dafabet
Draw3.94 @ Pinnacle
Away4.00 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.14 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.69 @ 188Bet
No2.13 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Tepatitlán = 0.89 (league 1.62), Tapatío = 0.96 (league 1.04)

Tapatío
0 1 2 3 4 5
Tepatitlán 0 15.8% 15.2% 7.3% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
1 14.0% 13.4% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
2 6.2% 5.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.7% · Draw 32.4% · Away win 35.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1