Sun, Feb 1 2026 • 01:00 •
Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés
Expected Goals
1.92 (league 1.53)
1.02 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | 21.9% | 19.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.3%
1 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Neza | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Celaya | 0 | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.7% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Celaya | Neza |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 40% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 100% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Celaya | Neza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 7 | 8 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 71% | 50% | 60% | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Draws | 0% | 13% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 13% |
| Loses | 29% | 38% | 33% | 50% | 57% | 53% |
Form: Celaya: WLWLLLLDWWWWWWW • Neza: LLDWLLWDLWWLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Celaya | Neza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 13 | 28 | 11 | 9 | 20 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 6 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 10 | 29 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Celaya | Neza | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 47% | 73% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 33% | 33% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 20% | 20% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 13% | 7% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Celaya | Neza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Celaya | Neza |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Celaya | Neza |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-1 | 1-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Celaya | Neza |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 100% | 0% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 58.5% | 41.5% |
Advice: Double chance : Celaya or draw
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Celaya = 1.92 (league 1.53), Neza = 1.02 (league 1.14)
| Neza | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Celaya | 0 | 5.3% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.7% | 9.9% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.0% · Draw 21.9% · Away win 19.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1